¿Riesgo de recesión?

Yo no soy tan pesimista ni creo que haya un riesgo real de recesión mundial.

No hay que hacer caso de quien utiliza la estrategia del alumno suspendedor a pesar de aprobar todo.

Me explico… Los mercados están utilizando esta estrategia de teoría de juegos que consiste en anticipar el.peor de los escenarios ante un conjunto de señales. Es lo mismo que hacen los alumnos que siempre salen de los exámenes diciendo que han suspendido, así consiguen hacer que el resto de alumnos que dicen.la verdad se confíen y tengan más.probabilidades de suspender en un entorno de competencia y asimetrías en la información.

Los mercados (las manos fuertes bancos y gestoras) quieren echar a la gente de a pie de los mercados de capitales y entonces inventan una dinámica de crisis, asumiendo una crisis ficticia en China y una quiebra de la banca alemana. Los dos eventos aunque considerables no son ciertos es decir en realidad el alumno no ha suspendido el examen pero se comporta como si hubiera suspendido. Así el.resto de alumnos pensará que también ha suspendido y venderán las acciones provocando crisis y recortes adicionales en sanidad y educación.

Luego hay cierto incentivo periodistico y de los economistas en crear crisis se confirma.la teoría de la comunicación negativa en la que se seleccionan eventos negativos para maximizar los periódicos y libros vendidos. Quien más ganan con las crisis son los economistas vendedores de libros y soluciones… Un indicador fiable que podría anticipar la salida de las crisis es la venta y consulta de libros de economia que probablemente vaya con retardo de los ciclos economicos… Es decir que cuando más se habla de crisis más se está saliendo de la misma.

Aún así hay cierta crisis pero más en el ánimo del consumo y de.la inversión que no recogen las cifras, se.podría decir que es una crisis de confianza e incertidumbre a futuro, el consumidor percibe que su consumo puede ser inestable y eso afecta al sentimiento del consumo a pesar de que aumenten las tasas de consumo.

En realidad lo que ocurre es que efectivamente hay recuperación pero los consumidores han aprendido de esta crisis que.la economía es altamente vulnerable y muy conectada con la actividad financiera a nivel mundial y eso es una debilidad a largo plazo. En ciertos aspectos las crisis inventadas desde la bolsa animan a los consumidores a no consumir a pesar de no tener mucho que ver.

La técnica de los mercados actuales es de nuevo destruir la confianza en el futuro basándose en dos eventos poco probables que sería una crisis y una burbuja industrial inventada en China y una crisis bancaria en Alemania. No conocemos personalmente a todos los inversores pero es extraño que ante dos eventos tan seguros.las cifras macro no lo hayan recogido ya. Se habla incluso de cierta recuperación de la industria China en el último mes y la banca alemana muy tocada con lo del Deutsche Bank ahora.por lo visto esta a precios muy atractivos en bolsa y se anticipan subidas del 30% en muchos valores.

Con que nos quedamos? Probablemente el mejor consejo sea no entrar en bolsa si se tiene dinero pero tampoco salir si se ha.invertido.

Una conclusión a la que se llega sin mucho esfuerzo es que las bolsas día a día se van desconectando cada vez más de la macro.

Si fuese por la macro la bolsa de valores no hubiera caído tanto por la crisis China (que en realidad es una desaceleración) menos aún por la supuesta debilidad bancaria de Deutsche Bank que ha podido provisionar sus pérdidas en derivados sin problemas.

Es decir que estamos viviendo un momento en el que los mercados de capitales viven un momento alejado de la realidad de los hechos. No he leido en las últimas semanas a ningún economista serio advirtiendo de una crisis inminente, tan sólo diciendo que efectivamente el petroleo si vivía al calor de una burbuja durante aproximadamente 10 años que el Fracking se ha encargado de destruir pero poco más.. Ni siquiera se otorga a las petroleras un conato de crisis financiera en el peor de los casos Bp que perdía 5000 millones si mal no recuerdo ha hecho frente a las pérdidas sin ampliar capital o pedir prestamos.

Se ve por tanto cierta desconexión de la realidad de los mercados y esto abunda en la desconfianza que sienten los consumidores sobre el futuro poco sólido… Sus activos financieros no depende su valor de la marcha de la economia ahora se ve que depende más de la opinión de Goldman Sachs o de Moody’s o de WSJ y sus artículos de opinion, esto traslada a un modelo caracterizado por el cartel bursátil que bajo sus interéses destruyen capital.

Krugman coincide cada vez más en que Wall Street debiera ser regulado en tanto en cuanto afecta su. Conducta al resto de la economía y ver hasta que punto no existen incentivos por parte de la bolsa de destruir la economia como tal.. Hay que saber que con la volatilidad en los precios son las manos fuertes las que de verdad hacen dinero.conducta.

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