Según las encuestas, la nueva candidata del Partido Socialista Brasileño, Marina Silva, ganaría las elecciones en la segunda vuelta en Brasil. Hay que esperar, ya que su nombramiento ha sido traumático, tras la muerte por accidente del candidato anterior, y quedan 40 días hasta las elecciones. Suele haber una relación entre los ciclos políticos y los económicos aunque no determinante. ¿Hay causas económicas para justificar un cambio de ciclo político?
Los indicadores adelantados anticipan que es muy probable que Brasil haya entrado en recesión. De nuevo hay que esperar pero, en el mejor de los escenarios, la economía estaría estancada y con inflación elevada, lo que en los años ochenta en los países desarrollados se denominó estanflación.
Esta es una patología que afecta al lado de la oferta de la economía. El problema de Brasil es que ha dejado de ser un país rentable para invertir y hacer negocios. Es cierto que el potencial a largo plazo sigue siendo atractivo pero a corto plazo los precios relativos de salarios, servicios auxiliares y costes de financiación hacen que las inversiones no sean rentables.
En los años ochenta la causa fue el fuerte aumento del precio del petróleo y los costes energéticos. En Brasil, la causa es un ciclo expansivo demasiado largo que ha acumulado muchos desequilibrios que toca depurar. En Europa el elevado endeudamiento obliga a dedicar una parte significativa del PIB a devolver deudas y la demanda está deprimida. Esto mete a la economía en deflación y también hace que no sea rentable invertir.
En Europa es necesario aumentar la demanda para sacar a la economía de la depresión. Pero en Brasil aumentos de demanda serán más inflacionistas y agravarían el problema. El tipo de cambio se ha depreciado con fuerza y debe hacerlo aún más. Lo más complicado será depreciar los precios internos.
La clave es bajar la inflación y para eso sería necesario un pacto de rentas. Los trabajadores comprometen moderación salarial y los empresarios comprometen que el aumento de beneficios se destinará a inversión productiva y creación de empleo. Esto no evita el ajuste pero minimiza su impacto social sobre el desempleo y la pobreza.
Además hay que liberalizar sectores domésticos para evitar que haya oligopolios que se apropien de las rentas y no las dediquen a inversión. Hace falta reducir la burocracia y eliminar trabas a las empresas para invertir y hacer negocios. En contra de la intuición, abrirse a tratados de libre comercio hará que las empresas sean más competitivas y es una vacuna para la estanflación, aunque no 100% eficaz. Esto debe ser gradual y no a corto plazo pero hay que mandar señales. La tentación es el proteccionismo, que provocaría que la estanflación fuera crónica.
Esto es el protocolo que los economistas hemos analizado que ha permitido a otros países salir de la estanflación. ¿Lo aplicará el nuevo Gobierno? ¿Lo aceptará la sociedad? Veremos. Para Latam y para España es una mala noticia. Brasil era la locomotora del área por el fuerte crecimiento de su demanda interna y sus importaciones. Y la principal aportación de beneficios a nuestras grandes empresas, especialmente Santander y Telefónica. Por eso deseamos que los brasileños acierten en la elección de su gobierno y éste en la elección de su política económica.
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